Political theory

Already, City Council is in an uproar over his insistence that members surrender two precious perks: their city-issued cars and use of a controversial pension program. And residents are none too happy with his plan to raise property taxes next year 19 percent.

While the mayor did not create the economic crisis that led to a $1.3 billion hole in Philadelphia’s spending plans, he will most certainly be judged by his attempts to resolve it.

At stake are the rest of Nutter’s first-term agenda and, to a lesser extent, his prospects for reelection.

“The recession and fiscal crisis has made this the most defining moment of his four-year term,” said G. Terry Madonna, a political analyst and pollster at Franklin and Marshall College.

If, after the budget battle, Nutter is viewed as a strong leader who made tough but fair decisions, he will have an easier time advancing his goals - critically important with four sets of municipal labor talks on the horizon.

If, however, he emerges bruised, Nutter may find it more difficult to garner the political support needed to push through elements of his agenda.

“No one saw this international economic crisis coming, but it is the hand I have, and I have to do the best I can with it,” Nutter said in an interview in his office last week. “My focus has always been on doing the right thing in the moment I am in, and the future will take care of itself.”

But there is no consensus on “the right thing” to close the budget deficit.

“He is taking some steps that are really in the wrong direction,” said city Republican Party chief Michael P. Meehan, who attended two “town hall” budget forums that the administration helped present. “I understand the shape the economy is in, but I’m not sure anyone believes these taxes” - Nutter also wants a penny-per-dollar increase in the sales tax - “are anything but draconian.”

Zack Stalberg, president of the government watchdog group Committee of Seventy, said the stakes for Nutter were “not big - they’re huge.”

“I don’t think he necessarily fails if he doesn’t get what he wants,” he continued, “but I think whether he emerges from this as a great mayor, or as just one more guy who ran the government for four or eight years, really depends on the outcome of this budget.”

Not everyone agrees.

“I don’t think the current financial crisis or this tough budget is a predeterminant one way or the other of how much he is able to pursue,” said Comcast Corp. executive David L. Cohen, chief of staff to Gov. Rendell when he was mayor in the 1990s. Whether restoring public trust in City Hall or strengthening Philadelphia’s ties with the suburban counties, he said, many of Nutter’s priorities in any case “were not going to be slam dunks.”

Nonetheless, Cohen said, the mayor’s chances of achieving some of his goals have improved through this budget process. Nutter has shown “he has the guts to be a strong political leader and to take a stand. . . . He can’t be Mr. Lovey Dovey to everyone and actually has to pick some fights.” And that, Cohen said, has elevated Nutter’s stature.

“He is a decent guy in an impossible situation. Nobody is happy with the mayor,” said lawyer Carl Singley, who supported one of Nutter’s rivals, State Rep. Dwight Evans, in the 2007 Democratic mayoral primary.

Ultimately, Evans said, “people will judge him on the honesty and forthrightness and the extent to which he seems to be doing the best he can in a difficult situation.”

Nutter said he was not surprised by the outbursts resulting from his proposals - including those that seem to present the biggest risk by alienating Council while he is courting its support for his budget. Even Nutter allies such as Council President Anna C. Verna and Majority Leader Marian B. Tasco are ticked that he wants to ban elected officials from participating in the DROP pension program.

“I have no interest in trying to manage the status quo,” Nutter said in the interview. “I am trying to change the status quo, and that will require from time to time bold, sometimes dramatic, and certainly straightforward action.”

Madonna, the Franklin and Marshall pollster, said Nutter’s move regarding Council’s members was a smart one. “It puts the spotlight on them by sharing the pain.”

Despite differing opinions about the budget’s effect on the rest of Nutter’s term, few political observers appear to believe that any negative fallout would harm his reelection chances. History shows it is difficult to unseat incumbents, especially in this overwhelmingly Democratic city, where Republicans are outnumbered more than 5-1.

In addition, the observers said, Mayor W. Wilson Goode Sr. was reelected after the police, during his first term, bombed a building in the 1985 MOVE confrontation. Likewise, Mayor John F. Street enjoyed a second term despite a federal corruption investigation at City Hall.

Of course, serious political discord could provide ammunition to a mayoral opponent or attract someone to run who otherwise might not - although at this time no obvious rival has emerged.

State Sen. Anthony Williams of West Philadelphia said the mayor’s eroding relationship with Council, combined with “a negative outcome from the budget, could give someone running against him something to use.”

But it is too early to wager any such bets. “One thing I have noticed about Michael,” Williams said, “is that he has the ability to learn from political missteps.”